The European Skills Intelligence Observatory briefed the new European Skills High Level Board on megatrends, skills gaps, mismatches and supply.
Just as the European Skills High Level Board, chaired by former Swedish Minister of Schools and former Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson, had its first kick-off on May 19th, the European Skills Intelligence Observatory (ESIO) published its first policy brief addressed to the Board. The policy brief is divided into three sections, dedicated to megatrends shaping the skills problems, skills gaps and mismatches, and lastly, a focus on the skills supply side. The issues raised in the report are intended to be discussed within the European Skills High Level Board, which was established to advise the Commission and give guidance on skills and actions to strengthen the EU’s human capital.
The most pressing issues shaping the debate around skills are the demographical changes and productivity lags. Based on Eurostat data cited in the policy brief, the working age population has decreased by 8 million from 268 million in 2009 to 260 million in 2025. This trend is estimated to continue with a yearly decrease of 1 million yearly, resulting in the projection of 236 million people by 2050. In addition, the growth of productivity in the European Union (EU) has significantly been slowing down for over two decades compared to the United States (US). The brief reasons that “in the EU, technological diffusion was slower than in the US”, and notes that rapid changes in required skills, combined with employers’ difficulties in finding people with the right qualifications, hinder economic growth. At the same time, nearly 20% of workers in general report being over-skilled, and in more specific elementary occupations this number even reaches 32%, which adds new layers to this complexity.
As a rule of thumb, the policy brief suggests that the more specific skills a job requires, the more likely that occupation is to face shortages. This affects a wide range of occupations, including skilled trades such as electricians, carpenters and metal workers, health-related professions, and service jobs such as waiters and cooks. On top of that, labour shortages are more common in those fields that are gender-coded, such as female-dominated jobs like nurses or male-dominated jobs in the ICT-sector. In addition, both fields are exemplary for fast growing occupations. The former, broadly speaking, is because of the aging population in the EU, the other because of the increasing importance of data technology or cyber security. This is consistent with CEDEFOP data, which shows that digitalisation and AI adoption are expected to be major drivers of demand for ICT and engineering professionals.
One last puzzle piece to understand the urgency with which the EU is trying to fix the problems around skills are challenges on the skills supply side. Various large-scale assessments like PISA have exposed the decreasing performance of 15-year-olds, with more and more low achievers when it comes to basic skills such as reading and mathematics. However, the policy brief takes a more differentiated snapshot by pointing out the teacher shortages as a key factor. In turn, so the claim, addressing this could be an important step towards better academic performance among pupils. Finally, the brief highlights the importance of a STEM-adapted curriculum to foster innovation and competitiveness.
Again, these topics are expected to shape the European Skills High Level Board’s discussions as it supports the Commission with strategic advice on skills policy and measures to reinforce the EU’s human capital base. Johansson, the chair of the board, will directly report to the Executive Vice-President Mînzatu. The policy brief by the ESIO, therefore, serves as a good reference point to assess in which direction the Board’s work will most likely develop. Rumours about the very business and industry centred composition of the board turned out to be true. Members from the business and industry context include Adecco, Business Europe, European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), European Trade Union Committee for Education (ETUCE), SME United, and GB Foods. Research is represented by imec and Katapult, and higher education institutions such as the Polytechnic University of Bucharest, St. Pölten University of Applied Sciences, University of Helsinki, and the University of Milano. And lastly, a high school from Croatia, Cakovec Gymnasium, is also part of the board. The current composition of the membership brings together a varied set of actors, but all were appointed by the Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion (DG EMPL) with the agreement of Directorate-General for Education, Youth, Sport and Culture (DG EAC) at the European Commission. Three additional members are still to be named. However, it remains to be seen how much influence the European Skills High Level Board will have on decision making and what role its recommendations ultimately play.