The final report of the Mutual Learning Exercise (MLE) on Research and Innovation foresight recommends close collaboration between the EU and Member States.
This Mutual Learning Exercise (MLE) on R&I foresight focused on facilitating the exchange of information, experiences and lessons learnt in the practice of R&I foresight across the EU and Associated Countries (AC), and contributing to the development of an impactful R&I foresight community as an important element of ERA. The participating countries include Belgium, Norway, Austria, Czechia, Finland, Portugal, Romania, Estonia and Slovenia. Foresight offers an innovative platform for unpacking and exploring the transformative potential of emerging ideas, technologies, and societal developments that can reshape existing policy frameworks and governance structures. This MLE was established at the request of a group of EU Member States (MS), with the overarching purpose of identifying excellent R&I foresight practices and related strategic processes, institutions, and capacities at the EU, MS, and global levels. In an increasingly uncertain, intricate, and dynamically changing global landscape, the importance of foresight, especially in the context of policymaking, has significantly grown. The heightened interest and relevance of R&I foresight are in response to various geopolitical, economic, technological, social, and environmental challenges. R&I foresight serves as a crucial tool for proactively addressing disruptions, which, in turn, can stimulate the development of forward-thinking and resilient policies.
The final report of the MLE on R&I foresight was published in October 2023. It summarises the current state of institutionalised R&I foresight and provides a strategy for extending and deepening R&I foresight in government. It draws on country instances to provide direction for a guidebook on specific methods and approaches for implementing R&I foresight in a variety of modern policy situations, such as smart specialisation, mission-oriented policy, citizen participation, and twin transition.
Central findings of the final report include that foresight has developed and diffused widely in the public sector at the international, EU, and national levels, becoming increasingly critical for supporting anticipatory governance. Foresight plays a crucial role in initiating debates on the future, in providing intermediation between different stakeholders and ensuring a systematic approach to reflecting on long-term perspectives and respective actions. Although the practice has become increasingly established and institutionalised in the public sector, R&I foresight is still at risk of being downsized or discontinued. There is also an increasing trend of instrumentalisation of foresight, which is exacerbated by politicians using it to serve their own agenda. The core aspects of foresight, however, must be preserved, particularly the exploratory nature that allows for reflection and co-creation and its challenging function. R&I foresight is employed in a wide range of government contexts, policy domains and initiatives. It enhances traditional functions of government, like intelligence-gathering, stakeholder and public consultations or consensus-building. However, foresight has a greater potential for government policymaking in terms of process and content and in underpinning transformative R&I policy.
Key recommendations include the necessity of specialised foresight methodologies that are tailored to the country context. Regular exchanges between governments, especially for smaller countries are important to share know-how. There is a need for a capability of EU-level scanning and tracking of signals of change and disruption which incorporates the potential of AI tools for hybrid foresight approaches. The EC should develop collaborative initiatives with MS and AC to work towards a European horizon scanning facility. To safeguard the public interest and common good, R&I foresight needs to provide a truly open space for dialogue, co-creation, and co-construction with key stakeholders.
It is envisaged, and is also an ambition of the MLE participants, that the learning and impacts generated so far will be complemented by dissemination events, wider exchanges and networking and other follow-up activities. This MLE on R&I foresight has led to national outcomes and follow-ups, which further demonstrates an ongoing commitment to R&I foresight at the national and EU level to create a wider impact through the MLE exercise.
Besides the MLA, the Foresight on Demand consortium recently conducted a study as part of the project ‘European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe’ for the EC. It explores practices and processes by which information should be exchanged between knowledge actors and policymakers with the intention to produce scientifically informed policies in Europe. Possible policy implications based on five scenarios of the future (in 2030), which highlight different types of science for policy ecosystems, were identified. These include a scenario on societal-challenge-driven and mission-oriented research and policy support, on data enthusiasm and AI overtaking scientific policy advice and on policy-based evidence-making in incumbent-driven industrial policy.