The Joint Research Center published a report that analyses the expected mismatch between supply & demand of higher education graduates in the EU in 2030.
In their latest report, the European Commission’s Joint Research Center (JRC) takes up the topic of mismatch between demand and supply among higher education graduates in the EU (Switzerland not covered). The JRC is the European Commission’s science and knowledge service that aims to provide evidence-based scientific support for European policymaking. The report takes a closer look at the misalignment between the supply of higher education graduates and the demand for them by the labour market, amongst other by drawing on forecasts by the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop).
The JRC report finds that there will be a small surplus of graduates in the field of (ICT) and a more important surplus in Science and Engineering. This increase in graduates in the ICT field does not come as a surprise as in the last two decades where there has been an immense focus on digital technologies and a great demand for workers with ICT skills. The labour market for tertiary graduates is tough in many fields of study, and an important number of graduates are unable to find employment after graduation. The issue is that a large number of students complete a degree in a subject where there is either little demand or excess supply and if they do, it is quite likely that this occupation requires a lower level of education (vertical mismatch) or an occupation that requires a degree in a different field (horizontal mismatch). This horizontal and vertical mismatch has various negative impacts on all the actors involved. On the level of individuals, it leads to lower earning and satisfaction, for companies it is a loss in productivity and investment for when they have to spend money and time on training their workers. It also affects society as a whole with a larger amount of unemployment benefits and less taxes, and can even hinder goals of social inclusion and poverty reduction.
Those findings are not new and there already is an attempt to reduce undesirable consequences from potential labour imbalances. Forecasts similar to this study help policymakers in the field of education and training to respond to changes in the demand for skills and qualifications. Recommendations on what can be done are found within this study and include necessity of improving the information given throughout the educational journey of students in which they need to be provided by more and better quality information about career paths. Additionally, in countries where there is a shortage of skilled ICT workers, students could be exposed to this field at an early age and be introduced to the excitement of information technology and computing.
There is an expected shortage of skilled labour in Luxembourg, Romania, Italy, Sweden and Czech Republic while there is a surplus of skilled workers in France, Belgium, Denmark and Spain, which is in line with brain drain issues discussed by the Member States in the last meeting of EU education ministers. Evidently, the results of this study differ significantly across EU Member States, which makes it hard to come up with universal recommendations, which apply and would be effective for everyone. Therefore, the recommendations about what can be done also consist of encouraging students to take into consideration the labour market in their area of study and their country.
The joint report concludes that while the discussion often only focuses on hard skills (e.g. technical abilities) attention on soft skills (teamwork, work ethic) should be addressed as well. There is growing evidence that it is an important criterion in the employment process and it is, therefore, suggested that graduates could benefit from acquainting soft skills and this could be supported by educational providers that would signal to potential employers the extent to which they possess them.
The EU provides several tools to help improving national skills systems. Back in 2018, Cedefop e.g. launched a monitoring tool for national skills systems, entitled European Skills Index (ESI). A country’s skills system is assessed in three areas: ‘skills development’ (effectiveness of compulsory and post-compulsory education), ‘skills activation’ (transition from education to work) and ‘skills matching’ (how the learned skills match with the job). Recently, Cedefop released the 2020 European skills index (ESI), including an evaluation of the Swiss system, to showcase the developments since 2018. Overall, there seems to be an improvement of the skills system in Europe since 2018. Switzerland went down by 3 ranks since 2018 and is now ranked 9th. The 2020 index showed that Switzerland has an excellent score in skills development and skills activation pillar, however scoring quite poorly when it comes to the matching skills pillar.