The new OECD primer introduces five strategic intelligence tools to policymakers for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies.
The fresh-off-the-press Communication by the European Commission (EC) on the 2028-2034 multiannual financial framework (MFF) is meant to be much more than just a financial plan: the new EU Budget should support the Union in, among other things, “harness[ing] new technologies to drive growth and innovation” and “restor[ing] Europe’s competitive edge”. The European Competitiveness Fund (ECF) – the proposed EC initiative to enhance the EU’s global competitiveness – aims to support these ambitions and marks a first step towards a coherent approach for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies. The proposed ECF Strategic Stakeholder Board, informed by an observatory on emerging technologies, is envisioned to, among other things, advise on the ECF’s overall direction. Considering the previous publications by the Directorate-General for Research and Innovation that provided valuable insights on how a coherent tech monitoring assessment can enable the EU to (re)gain its competitive edge and close the gap in technological developments with global players (see SwissCore article), it is reassuring that the ECF recognises the importance of monitoring emerging technologies. With details on the relationship between the observatory and the Board likely still to be worked out, the recent OECD working paper ‘Strategic intelligence tools for emerging technology governance: A policy primer’ might provide EU policymakers with the necessary support to adopt an anticipatory governance approach to realise its ambitions for 2028-2034 and beyond.
Emerging technologies are invaluable for tackling societal challenges and boosting growth. But their rapid developments and novelties associated with these technologies make it extremely difficult for policymakers to embed emerging technologies into policy. But considering that these technologies can be detrimental to the environment, public trust, and values the EU aims to uphold, the Union cannot afford bad governance in this context. The report is thus timely, focusing on governance and, in particular, on strategic intelligence that supports appraisal of emerging technologies. Strategic intelligence is the analysis of possible directions and economic implications of developments of emerging technologies, the potential ethical and societal benefits and risks these developments carry, and the levels of societal support required. Appraisal, then, provides strategic intelligence to understand an emerging field and inform policy decision-making. The paper is intended as a primer for policymakers unfamiliar with strategic intelligence tools, and introduces the main areas of strategic intelligence for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies.
Five approaches of strategic intelligence that enable technology appraisal for anticipatory governance are discussed: (1) Horizon scanning; (2) Strategic foresight; (3) Expert-driven technology assessment (TA); (4) Participatory TA; and (5) Text mining. Horizon scanning is the ability to capture early signals of potentially high impact developments, helping decision makers understand drivers of change and how they might create new opportunities or threats in future. Strategic foresight is the practice of mapping out alternative scenarios, identifying how uncertainties could unfold. The aim is to subsequently design a robust policy approach that can handle a wide range of possible futures. The third and fourth approaches are forms of TA: an evidence-based process that identifies challenges and opportunities of emerging technologies and can therefore help shape policies to govern them. Expert-driven TA engages stakeholders to understand potential technological developments and their societal implications, whereas participatory TA embeds citizens and stakeholders in the process. Complementing scientific evidence with the societal context in which a technology would be applied is crucial when making evidence-based policy choices about emerging technologies; not only does this better address potential inequalities that may arise from these technologies, but also builds trust in science, technology, and governance. The last approach is text mining and involves identifying patterns within structured datasets of scientific articles and patents in an automated way to extract useful data. This approach is particularly valuable for early-stage technologies, as these still lack a trend that can be captured, or may evolve in uncertain and complex ways. However, to support governance, outcomes of the mining process must be translated into policy relevant and intelligible resources.
The report concludes by providing reflections on when and how to mobilise these tools and the intelligence they produce. To support policymakers, the paper places the approaches into two contexts: (1) stages of emergence of a ‘new’ technology; and (2) stages of the policy cycle. For the purposes of the primer, a policy cycle is triggered by an external factor, such as a new technology option being observed, and can be broken down into three phases. Phase 1 consists of identifying the needs and defining the objectives of the potential policy measures. All five strategic intelligence approaches are highly relevant at this stage. In phase 2 – exploring potential policy approaches and designing the policy – strategic foresight and both forms of TA are particularly relevant; horizon scanning and text mining are of limited use. In phase 3, which covers the implementation, monitoring, and reviewing of a policy, all five approaches are considered relevant, but participatory TA and text mining especially so.
Considering the Commission’s strategic priorities of competitiveness and strategic autonomy, and in the context of the 2028-2034 MFF proposal, the time is right to consider how governance of emerging technologies can support the Union in achieving its ambitions. With emerging technologies likely to influence the overall direction of the priorities of the ECF, understanding what strategic intelligence tools exist and how to use them is invaluable for the EU to regain its competitive position and build a resilient society.