According to this report, R&I policy can strengthen future civic resilience by improving infrastructure resilience and prioritising social welfare.
Given future crises, on 5 February 2024, the European Commission (EC) published a policy brief analysing how to improve civic resilience. The report formulates conclusions regarding where research and innovation (R&I) policy can be most impactful and thus should focus on strengthening civic resilience. Related to the topic – in the context of increased geopolitical tensions – the EC recently adopted a package of five initiatives to strengthen the EU’s economic security, including options on how dual-use R&I can be enhanced in the next EU framework programmes (see SwissCore article). In addition to economic security, this foresight report now addresses questions concerning the civic resilience perspective.
Since the turn of the 21st century, rising detachment and distrust among EU citizens, linked to economic instability and government inefficiencies, threaten the foundations of the European social system, highlighting the need for civic resilience in current and future transitions. In this report, civic resilience refers to the ability of a community, city, or society to anticipate, react to, recuperate from, and adjust to adversities, obstacles, and disturbances, encompassing both crises and transitional periods. Civic resilience is further calling for preparedness beyond the support of the public administration, meaning that the civil society as in the community and the individual citizens takes the initiative to lead social change.
The publication follows a scenario approach, devising four possible scenarios by 2040, considering each of their implications for today to then derive R&I policy recommendations. The scenarios are situated around two axes: technological and economic adaptation on the one hand, capturing the degree to which a society can adapt to economic downturns, technological disruptions, and changes in job markets. The axis of social and environmental stewardship, on the other hand, stands for how society responds to disparities in social equality, fosters community unity, and tackles environmental issues.
The scenarios extensively described in this report range from the first and ideal scenario with a high technological-economic adaptation and equally thriving socio-environmental stewardship to the worst-case scenario, both criteria being on a low level. In the first scenario, civic resilience is assumed to be mainly absent since the community has no self-protection mechanism to fall back on. The worst-case scenario, however, is presumed to be featured by a high collective and individual resilience due to the hostile environments reinforcing survival instinct. In between, the second scenario with a high socio-environmental stewardship and a low technological-economic adaption respectively, is bound to have a distinct community resilience combined with a low level of individual resilience, as citizens are subordinated to the community. The factors of the third scenario are reversed to the latter, resulting in a tech-driven dystopia, where only individual resilience may be high, whereas social institutions have become annulled.
Pointing out that R&I policy plays a crucial role in fostering crisis prevention and preparedness, the report formulates some key policy implications. Firstly, the significance of environmental monitoring and earth science is emphasised. Equally important are the links they forge with civil protection and crisis management practices. Furthermore, R&I policy should strive to enhance the resilience of infrastructure while also promoting a balance between societal infrastructure requirements and the environmental impacts stemming from its construction, utilisation, and decommissioning. Additionally, there should be a focus on innovation in materials and construction technologies and techniques. Finally, the unpredictable social effects of technology underscore the importance of public services and local actors in fostering civic resilience, necessitating broad engagement in shaping R&I policy agendas to prioritise social welfare and stability and improve existing public services like education and healthcare.